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Australia • 27 March 2025

Market Update: Tight Global Supply and Weather Challenges Shape 2025 Season


As the 2025 macadamia season gets underway, global supply is expected to remain tight, with no significant production increases anticipated in major growing regions. While Australia and South Africa have seen reasonable flowering and nut set, this is not expected to translate into significantly larger harvests.

Although recently planted orchards are beginning to mature and will gradually boost availability over the coming years, any substantial production growth in 2025 appears unlikely.

The combination of tight supply and low global inventory is set to heighten pressure on early-season availability. Processors are expected to begin cracking in April, with the first shipments of new-season kernels anticipated from May 2025. This will likely lead to strong early demand as buyers move to secure limited volumes.

 

Key Regional Crop Developments

Australia: The Australian macadamia crop forecast has been revised in light of damage caused by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The 2025 crop is now forecast at 55,960 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture (equivalent to 60,000 tonnes at 10% moisture), slightly down from the original estimate of 56,890 tonnes (or 61,000 tonnes at 10% moisture).

Although damaging winds and heavy rainfall affected parts of Northern New South Wales, the overall impact on national supply is expected to be minimal. However, growers in the region are facing challenges such as tree damage, erosion, and harvest delays due to waterlogged orchards. Current forecasts indicate that wet conditions are likely to persist for at least the next two weeks.

Queensland’s growing regions, responsible for nearly 70% of national production, remained largely unaffected by the cyclone. The Bundaberg region, which accounts for approximately 50% of Australia’s crop, avoided the severe weather altogether. Harvest in Bundaberg is progressing well, with early signs pointing to good nut quality and healthy yields, especially from younger trees.

South Africa: A modest crop increase of around 10% is expected in 2025, providing some additional in-shell volume for export. However, the overall availability of both in-shell and kernel remains constrained. New cracking facilities are increasing their capability to pivot between NIS and Kernel markets.

China: China’s 2024 crop of 65,000 metric tonnes (in-shell) will continue to supply the local market until fresh shipments arrive from Australia and South Africa. Despite growth in domestic production, China imported 90,000 tonnes of NIS in 2024, highlighting both the scale of the market and a growing appetite for macadamias across an increasingly diverse range of products. Demand is expected to remain strong heading into 2025.

Kenya: The government’s ban on NIS exports is expected to shift the market back to a predominantly kernel-focused export model. The 2025 crop is currently forecast to be in line with 2024 volumes.

Despite earlier concerns about flowering and nut set, growing conditions had been generally favourable across producing regions. Orchards have been prepared for harvest, and the 2025 crop is still anticipated to deliver good-quality kernel and in-shell nuts.

Although weather-related impacts in Australia have now eased, global macadamia supply remains constrained. Australia’s revised forecast reflects only a modest volume adjustment, and no significant production increases are expected in other key origins.

As demand for macadamias continues to rise globally, quality and supply constraints will play a decisive role in shaping pricing and trade flows throughout the season.